Which Retailers Are Growing, and What Can CRE Learn From Them?

Retail real estate headlines often focus on two numbers: how many stores are opening and how many are closing. Both are useful, but neither tells the whole story. A retailer closing hundreds of locations might be restructuring an outdated footprint, while another adding dozens of stores might be making a calculated bet on a particular customer and market. For commercial real estate professionals, the more interesting question isn't simply who's expanding; rather, it’s what those expansion decisions reveal about where demand is going.

The latest market data offers a useful starting point. In the third quarter of 2026, U.S. retail vacancy fell to 4.3%, according to Colliers, while net absorption reached its highest quarterly level since 2023. At the same time, CoStar reported that new retail construction starts fell to their lowest quarterly total since at least 2016. Retail space remains in demand, but the supply of new properties isn't keeping pace with every potential opportunity. 

Growth Isn't Distributed Evenly

Consider the expansion strategies of retailers such as Ross Dress for Less and Aldi. Ross added 115 locations during fiscal 2026, while Aldi announced plans to open more than 180 U.S. stores this year. These businesses operate in different categories, but both appeal to consumers looking for value. Their expansion suggests that certain retail formats can find opportunities even when shoppers remain selective about spending. 

That doesn't mean every value-oriented retailer will succeed, or that discount stores are the only category with room to grow. It does illustrate why broad statements about the health of retail can be misleading. Consumer demand doesn't disappear uniformly when budgets tighten; spending can shift between retailers, categories, and locations. A market may lose one tenant while another finds a compelling reason to move in.

For landlords and developers, those distinctions matter. A vacant storefront isn't automatically evidence of a struggling trade area, just as a new store announcement doesn't guarantee that the surrounding market is thriving. Understanding which businesses are expanding, and why, can help separate a property's temporary leasing challenge from a more fundamental problem with local demand.

Store Openings Are Signals, Not Guarantees

A retailer's expansion plans can offer valuable clues about its confidence in a market. Companies invest considerable time evaluating customer demographics, competition, accessibility, sales potential, and operating costs before committing to a new location. Their decisions can provide another source of information about where commercial space may be needed.

But those signals need context. A retailer might be opening stores to reach an underserved customer base, improve delivery coverage, or replace older locations with more productive ones. Another might be expanding rapidly because its business model depends on scale. The same store-opening number can reflect very different strategies, and an announcement is not the same as a signed lease or a successful store.

The useful question is whether multiple signals point in the same direction. Are several retailers targeting the same market? Is population or employment growth supporting their plans? Are existing tenants reporting strong performance? Is new development keeping up with demand, or are businesses competing for a limited number of suitable spaces?

When those indicators reinforce one another, a retailer's expansion plans become more informative than they would be in isolation.

What This Means for Site Selection

Limited new construction makes the relationship between tenant demand and available space especially important. CoStar reported that roughly 58.3 million square feet of retail space was under construction nationally in Q3, with development constrained by land prices, construction costs, and borrowing costs. In markets where demand is strong but new supply is limited, existing properties may become more attractive to expanding retailers. 

That creates opportunities, but not for every property. Retailers have specific requirements for size, visibility, parking, access, co-tenancy, and customer reach. A market can support a growing retailer without every available shopping center being suitable for it. The challenge is matching the right tenant to the right property, rather than assuming that national growth translates into local leasing demand.

For developers, brokers, and landlords, this is a reason to watch retailer expansion before it becomes obvious in the market. The goal isn't to predict every successful chain or chase every announced opening. It's to identify where tenant requirements are emerging, then determine whether the available real estate can meet them.

Store openings and closures will always make headlines, but the underlying decisions are more valuable than the raw totals. When we understand which retailers are growing, what their strategies have in common, and where they're choosing to invest, we get a clearer picture of how consumer demand is reshaping the retail landscape. That is the information that can turn a broad market trend into a real estate opportunity.